Our economic outlook for the United Kingdom

The impact of heightened tensions in the Middle East on the U.K. outlook will depend on the magnitude and persistence of the energy shock and the policy response. Elevated uncertainty and financial market volatility leave the outlook highly sensitive to developments in energy prices and inflation expectations.

We have revised our policy outlook and now expect the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain its bank rate at 3.75% rather than make two cuts in 2026. While the BoE had previously adopted a more dovish tone, the initial impact of the energy shock has complicated the policy trade‑off. Against this backdrop, policymakers are likely to take a wait-and-see approach until there is greater clarity on the evolution of energy prices and inflation expectations.

On growth, we have downgraded our 2026 GDP forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 0.6%, based on a scenario in which oil prices average $90–$100 per barrel and gas prices average €60/MWh for one to two quarters. Roughly half of the downgrade reflects the direct drag from higher energy prices, with the remainder driven by tighter financial conditions. Early signs of spillovers are already visible in the data: The flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to 51.0 in March from 53.7 in February, while forward-looking components such as new orders and future output have softened.

Higher oil and gas prices are expected to elevate inflation in the near term. We have raised our 2026 headline Consumer Prices Index (CPI) forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 2.8% and our core CPI forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%. The U.K. is more exposed to energy shocks than the U.S. given its status as a net energy importer, while regulated prices add to inflation persistence—as highlighted during the 2022–23 energy crisis.